Socialists are changing the Democratic establishment. It won’t stop Hakeem Jeffries from being the next speaker

House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries took time Monday to address a recent report that he met with President Donald Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner - a move that left some Democrats frustrated and calling for new leadership.

The meeting angered some progressives partially because Kushner has been high on Democrats’ list of targets to investigate if they win back control of the House of Representatives. It’s also somewhat of an embarrassment for current House Speaker Mike Johnson since it’s all but an admission by the White House that Democrats are likely to win control of the House in November.

“He asked for a meeting and I took it to discuss the affordability crisis that exists that is not a hoax,” Jeffries said in a video on X, referencing how the president has long called “affordability” a made-up term. “At the same period of time, I should not have to say it, but I am: Nobody is going to get a pass.”

The report of the meeting and response show that Jeffries has a real problem on his hands: Many left-wing Democrats think he is in an inadequate fighter. His continued support for Israel, in a time when many Democratic voters consider Israel’s onslaught in Gaza a genocide, has earned him additional criticism. And earlier this month, some left-wingers slammed Jeffries for not saying he does not support Medicare for All.

All of this comes as socialist Democrats are winning House primaries, sometimes with the endorsement of the most prominent socialist in Jeffries’s home of New York City: Mayor Zohran Mamdani.

It doesn’t mean, however, that Jeffries is likely to lose his status as next House Speaker.

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But no matter how much left-wing Democrats harp about Jeffries, his ascension to the Speaker chair comes down to a simple answer: math.

Unlike becoming Senate majority leader or House minority leader, the Speaker needs a clear majority on the House floor to earn the gavel.

One benefit Jeffries has is that he stands to become the first Black speaker of the House. That means that the Congressional Black Caucus will uniformly support him. With almost 60 members in the House of Representatives, they form a considerable bloc and they will likely see no defections.

That also means it takes out a number of would-be challengers to Jeffries, such as Rep. Joe Neguse of Colorado or Lauren Underwood of Illinois, since none would want to defect.

The second problem is finding an alternative to Jeffries. When then-Rep. Matt Gaetz blocked Kevin McCarthy’s ascent to become speaker of the House for the first week of Congress in 2023, he and his band of bomb-throwers were unable to find an alternative. It took three weeks and three candidates failing before Republicans ultimately settled on Johnson, a largely anonymous backbencher with few enemies.

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Third, for Jeffries, it’s likely that many progressive Democrats would not want to face retribution. In the past, conservatives who challenged speakers such as John Boehner lost prime committee assignments or were relegated to irrelevance.

A challenge to an incumbent Speaker that ultimately fails usually means less power in the future. This is largely why, despite their criticisms, members of the Squad such as Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York and Rashida Tlaib of Michigan backed Nancy Pelosi.

A split among progressive support for Jeffries would give increased leverage to moderates such as pro-Israel Reps. Josh Gottheimer of New Jersey and Tom Suozzi of New York, to seize the vacuum and put forward a more conservative Democrat for the Speaker role.

All of these reasons might be why top progressive and New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani, despite his sharp disagreements with Jeffries, has refrained from staging a challenge. That and having the top official in Congress being a representative from his state means federal dollars. The same goes double for Ocasio-Cortez, who likely would benefit from Jeffries backing her should she stage a Senate run.

But just because Jeffries gets the gavel and has control of the House does not mean he will be a free man. Any speaker knows, they have two constituencies: the people who sent them to Congress and the people who made them speaker. After he takes up the mantle, he will need to tend to every member, including leftists’, needs.

If anything, left-wingers might have more leverage once Jeffries becomes Speaker rather than before.